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Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FOPZ12 KNHC 022038
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072019               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2019                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 140W       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 140W       34 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

15N 145W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 145W       34  1  26(27)  22(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
20N 145W       50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  20(40)   X(40)   X(40)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  24(31)   X(31)   X(31)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN