000
WTPZ45 KNHC 140235
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The depression has not become better organized since earlier today. 
Visible satellite images show that the well-defined low-level 
center remains displaced and exposed to the northwest of the main 
area of deep convection.  Using measurements with the Dvorak shear 
pattern, the intensity of the cyclone is estimated to be below 
tropical storm strength.  Thus the current intensity estimate 
remains 30 kt, which is in agreement with earlier scatterometer 
observations.

Water vapor imagery shows that the system is currently being 
affected by moderate vertical wind shear and relatively dry 
mid-tropospheric air.  Global model guidance indicates that these 
marginal to unfavorable conditions are likely to persist for the 
next few days. Therefore, only slight short-term strengthening is 
called for and the system is expected to begin weakening in a day 
or so, with the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low in 96 hours 
or sooner.  This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery 
depicted by the ECMWF model run.  

The depression is moving a little south of due west with an 
initial motion of around 260/9 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north 
of the system should keep the cyclone on a mainly westward track 
with a slightly increase in forward speed for the next 72-96 hours. 
The official track forecast is similar to, but not quite as fast 
as, the latest Google DeepMind and corrected model consensus, 
HCCA, guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 17.0N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 16.8N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 16.3N 123.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 15.7N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 15.4N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch