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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ45 KNHC 012037

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021

The well-defined low pressure system located well offshore the 
southwestern coast of Mexico that the National Hurricane Center has 
been monitoring the past few days has developed enough organized 
deep convection to be designated as a tropical depression. Although 
the convection is strongly sheared and displaced to the west of the 
slightly elongated low-level center, barely meeting the criteria for 
a tropical cyclone, a recent 1733Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass 
revealed a few 28-kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern 
quadrant. Thus, the initial intensity is set at what could be a 
generous 30 kt. Socorro Island reported a wind gust to 34 kt in a 
passing narrow band of showers around 1630 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. 
Embedded within deep-layer east-southeasterly steering flow between 
Hurricane Hilda to the west-southwest and a sprawling subtropical 
ridge to the north, the cyclone is forecast to continue moving 
west-northwestward throughout the relatively short forecast period. 
The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly packed 
simple- and corrected-consensus models.

The depression has a very narrow window of opportunity of about 24 h 
to strengthen. Moderate-to-strong northeasterly vertical wind shear 
that has been hindering development the past few days is expected to 
gradually decrease from the current 19-22 kt down to around 10-12 kt 
in 18-24 h, which could allow for some slight intensification late 
tonight and/or early Monday morning when another nocturnal burst of 
convection is likely to occur. By 36 h, however, the cyclone is 
forecast to move over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and into a 
drier and more stable air mass, which could induce rapid weakening, 
with the system degenerating into a remnant low by 48 h and 
dissipation expected by 72 h. The official intensity forecast is 
similar to but slightly above the simple- and corrected-consensus 
intensity models IVCN and HCCA, respectively.


INIT  01/2100Z 17.4N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.0N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 19.9N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.6N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0600Z 20.9N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Stewart