280 
WTPZ45 KNHC 150836
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 AM MST Wed Jul 15 2026
 
Satellite imagery shows that the system is gradually becoming better 
organized. A central dense overcast has continued to expand over and 
southeast of the low-level center, with cloud-top temperatures as 
cold as -85 degrees C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimate from TAFB has increased to T3.0/45 kt, while objective 
estimates have risen into the 34 to 40 kt range. Based on these 
data, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making the cyclone 
Tropical Storm Elida.
 
Elida continues to move westward, with the initial motion estimated 
at 275/13 kt. A strong subtropical ridge positioned north of the 
cyclone should support this westward motion through the next 24 h. 
Thereafter, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge as an 
upper-level trough approaches the west coast of the United States, 
causing the system to slow down and gradually turn northwestward. A 
northwestward motion is then expected to continue through the 
remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good 
agreement through the weekend, but begins to steadily diverge 
thereafter. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory and closely follows the HCCA and Google DeepMind track 
aids.

Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive for 
strengthening during the next few days, with warm sea-surface 
temperatures, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment 
along the forecast track. Although confidence is low, a period of 
rapid intensification cannot be ruled out given these favorable 
conditions. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher end 
of the guidance, with Elida forecast to become a hurricane by 
Thursday night and reach peak intensity on Friday. By this weekend, 
the cyclone is forecast to encounter cooler waters, drier mid-level 
air, and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce a 
weakening trend.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 14.9N 111.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 15.0N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 15.1N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 15.5N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 16.2N 119.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 17.1N 121.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 18.2N 122.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 20.9N 125.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 23.3N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)