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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161752
TCDEP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Special Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance has become less organized, and there is no sign of a
new center forming offshore at this time.  So, while there is still
a small chance that the system could form into a tropical cyclone,
the system no longer poses a threat of bringing tropical-storm
conditions to the coast of Mexico, and this special advisory is
being issued to discontinue the tropical storm watch for the coast
of Mexico.  The disturbance should continue to interact with the
mountains of southern Mexico during the next day or so, which should
most likely cause its dissipation after 12 h.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system unless the threat of tropical storm conditions
increases along the coast of Mexico.  However, the heavy rainfall
threat, as well as the potential for flash flooding and mudslides
in southern Mexico, should continue for the next day or two.
Please refer to forecasts and warnings from the Meteorological
Service of Mexico for more information on this ongoing threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1800Z 16.6N  96.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0000Z 17.3N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven