000
WTPZ32 KNHC 271439
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
800 AM MST Tue Oct 27 2026
 
...VANCE IS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico 
and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the 
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was 
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 107.7 West. Vance is 
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward 
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn 
toward the north through midweek.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 
couple of days, and Vance could become a post-tropical cyclone 
during this time if it is unable to sustain organized convection.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) 
primarily to the southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango,
and northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches
possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This rainfall may
produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep
terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southern, southwestern, and west-central Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart