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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 181901
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region anchored by a 1023 mb high 
located over central Florida. The ridge will continue to maintain
mainly gentle to moderate southeast winds in the western Gulf, 
and light to gentle east to southeast elsewhere through tonight,
with the exception of moderate winds over the SE waters and the 
Straits of Florida. Seas are generally under 5 ft across the area 
based on altimeter data. A building ridge from the Atlantic will 
bring an increase in winds and seas across the Gulf waters on 
Mon. Expect fresh to locally strong SE to S winds and seas of up 
to 8 ft Mon through Wed. Fresh to strong winds are also expected 
in the Straits of Florida, with seas building to 10 ft Mon night
into Tue. A thermal trough will develop over the western Yucatan
Peninsula during each afternoon, drift west across the eastern 
Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and then dissipate 
over the southwest Gulf waters by late each morning. The next cold 
front is forecast by the GFS computer model to reach the NW Gulf
by late Wed or Wed night, then move back into Texas by Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A tight surface pressure gradient between a high pressure system
over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern South
America continues to support pulsing winds of minimal gale-force
near the coast of Colombia, with seas of 10-13 ft. Strong high 
pressure across the NW Atlc will build S across the region tonight
through Wed to produce strong trades across the east and central
Caribbean, and over the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Pulsing
winds of minimal gale force winds will persist each night near 
the coast of Colombia. Marine guidance suggests winds of 30-40 
kt by Mon night, with seas building to 15 or 16 ft. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A weakening ridge extending E to W along 28N will retract to the
E today and allow a weak cold front to move off the southeast 
United States coast. The front will quickly stall and dissipate 
across the northwest waters on Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail north of the ridge with moderate to fresh winds expected
generally south of 25N, except becoming strong along the north 
coast of Hispaniola and the north approach to the Windward 
Passage each evening. The ridge will be reinforcing by a stronger
high pressure Mon through Wed to produce strong winds and high 
seas across the entire region S of 25N. 

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     Gale Warning tonight into Tue. 
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night into Thu night. 

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.