Technical Implementation Notice

NOUS41 KWBC 131851
PNSWSH
 
Technical Implementation Notice 14-12
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
152 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2014
 
To:      Subscribers:
         -Family of Services
         -NOAA Weather Wire Service
         -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
         -NOAAPORT
         Other NWS Partners...and NWS Employees
 
From:    Mark Tew
         Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch 
 
Subject: Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge
         and Tide above Datum Products Will Transition To
         Operational 
 
Effective May 28, 2014, Experimental Probabilistic Tropical
Cyclone Storm Surge and Tide above North American Vertical Datum
of 1988 (NAVD-88) will become operational and be made available
over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT. 
 
This is a replacement of the older P-Surge model that did not
incorporate tide and used older National Geodetic Vertical Datum
of 1929 (NGVD-29) bathymetry and topography data.
 
The Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Tide above
North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD-88) guidance consists
of two suites of products for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic
coastal areas:
 
  a) Probabilities, in percent, of storm surge exceeding 2
     through 25 feet above NAVD-88, at 1 foot intervals (e.g. 2,
     3, 4, ..., 25 feet).
  b) Heights, above NAVD-88, that are exceeded by specific
     probabilities ranging from 10 to 90 percent at 10 percent
     intervals.
 
Each of the probabilistic products mentioned will be provided out
to 78 hours as a cumulative probability, defined as the overall
probability the event will occur at each grid cell from
the start of the run until 78 hours.
 
The products are based on an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland
Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory and account for track,
size, and intensity errors based on historic errors. 
 
The products will be generated when hurricane watches and/or
warnings are in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the
continental United States and on a case by case basis for
tropical storms.
 
The products will be available over the Satellite Broadcast
Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT in GRIB2 format.  The WMO Headers used
by the older P-Surge model (which did not consider tides and used
the NGVD-29 datum) will be reused by the newer P-Surge model.  A
complete list of WMO Headers can be found online at:
 
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/mc/psurge_abvdatum.pdf
 
Graphical versions of the products will be posted online at:
 
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/psurge2.0/
 
GRIB2, ESRI shape files, and KMZ formats will be available for
download from the above website.
 
For questions regarding this notice...please contact
     
      Arthur Taylor
      National Weather Service
      Meteorological Development Laboratory
      Silver Spring, Maryland 20910
      Telephone: 301-713-1613 x163
      Email: Arthur.Taylor@noaa.gov
 
      or
   
      John Kuhn
      National Weather Service
      Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch
      Silver Spring Maryland 20910
      Telephone: 301-713-1677 X121
      Email: John.F.Kuhn@noaa.gov
 
 
National Technical Information Notices are online at:
 
      http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm
 
$$