Request for Comments - Tropical Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues Tropical Weather Outlooks that discuss areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. These products are issued every 6 hours for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific ocean basins during the hurricane season. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued in text and graphical form. The product has evolved during the past few years, with the first issuance of the graphical version in 2007, the introduction of categorical (low/medium/high) genesis forecasts in 2008, and the enhancement in 2010 of providing the probability of development in 10% increments in both the text and graphical versions of the Outlooks.
With these changes in mind, NHC is soliciting feedback from users on whether the current form, content, and time period covered by the Tropical Weather Outlook products meets their needs. Suggestions for improvements in the product are welcome, and you may submit the feedback form located below the following example.
Example of a Tropical Weather Outlook
|GIS data: .shp|
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT ANY TIME TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE WATCHES OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 3. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR 20 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN