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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California 
Peninsula, which includes the remnants of Mario, is producing a 
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of 
next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of 
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as 
the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

3. South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual 
development of this system as it moves westward or 
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Beven