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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in 
association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles 
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, 
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form 
this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in 
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become 
less organized overnight.  While there is still some chance that a 
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or 
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive 
environment into Saturday.  The wave could reach a slightly more 
favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week 
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical 
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores 
has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it 
drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



Forecaster Blake