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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025
 
Overnight and this morning, convection has increased in both 
coverage and organization with the remnants of Mario, which is now 
just east-southeast of Socorro Island. Earlier scatterometer data 
from a Metop-B pass at 0428 UTC indicated that a well-defined center 
had reformed with a peak wind retrieval of 27 kt. Given the 
improvement of the system's structure on satellite imagery since 
that time, it appears that Mario is now on its second life as a 
tropical cyclone. There was some question as to if this system was 
fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is 
interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south. 
However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior 
circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and 
the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the 
same entity. The initial intensity this advisory is being set to 35 
kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt, 
a DPRINT estimate of 36 kt at 13 UTC, and a recent pressure 
observation of 1005 mb at Socorro Island, which appears to be just 
to the northwest of the tropical storm.
 
Mario is estimated to be moving slowly to the west-northwest at
285/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next several
days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered
over Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, Mario will likely become a shallow
tropical cyclone and bend more westward before it dissipates in 3-4
days. The NHC track forecast is in fairly good agreement with the
guidance aids, and generally is close to the simple and corrected
consensus aids.
 
Mario is in a favorable environment currently, with low shear under 
10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures between 28-30C, and plenty of 
mid-level moisture. These favorable conditions persist for about 36 
hours, and intensification is shown in the forecast, not that far 
off the most recent HAFS-B forecast. Afterwards, Mario will cross a 
very sharp temperature gradient while vertical wind shear also 
increases out of the southwest. Thus, Mario will likely weaken 
quickly between 48-60 h, losing its organized convection to become a 
shallow remnant low by 60 h, and dissipating entirely in 3-4 days. 
The NHC intensity forecast is a bit on the high side of the overall 
guidance envelope, but is close to the peak intensity of the latest 
HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 18.5N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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