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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025
 
High resolution GOES visible satellite imagery throughout today 
indicates that the disturbance south of Mexico has become better 
organized.  The system has a partially exposed low-level circulation 
located near an area of bursting deep convection with cloud top 
temperatures of less than -80 degrees C.  Subjective Dvorak 
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively.  
Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression 
Thirteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.  

The depression is moving at an uncertain 300/5 kt.  A mid-level 
ridge to centered over northern Mexico and Texas should steer the 
cyclone west-northwestward with an acceleration in forward speed 
during the next few days.  Over the weekend, the system should turn 
more northwestward as it rounds the periphery of the ridge and 
continue that motion through the end of the forecast period.  There 
is little cross-track variance in the guidance envelope, however, a 
bit more of an along-track spread.  The official track forecast lies 
between the various consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance.

The new cyclone has a rather small circulation.  In the next couple 
of days, global models suggest vertical wind shear and the proximity 
to land should limit the system's ability to strengthen.  By the 
weekend, environment conditions should become more conducive for 
steady strengthening.  The depression is forecast to reach 
tropical storm strength in a day or so and become a hurricane by 
day 3.  Late in the forecast period, cooler sea surface temperatures 
and dry mid-level humidities should induce a weakening trend.  The 
initial NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the 
intensity guidance envelope.

Predicted tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain 
offshore of the coast of Mexico.  However, heavy rains and 
potentially gusty winds are possible along portions of the 
southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 15.5N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 16.1N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 16.7N 102.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 17.3N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 18.2N 107.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 18.6N 109.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 22.1N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
 
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