ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025
High resolution GOES visible satellite imagery throughout today
indicates that the disturbance south of Mexico has become better
organized. The system has a partially exposed low-level circulation
located near an area of bursting deep convection with cloud top
temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively.
Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.
The depression is moving at an uncertain 300/5 kt. A mid-level
ridge to centered over northern Mexico and Texas should steer the
cyclone west-northwestward with an acceleration in forward speed
during the next few days. Over the weekend, the system should turn
more northwestward as it rounds the periphery of the ridge and
continue that motion through the end of the forecast period. There
is little cross-track variance in the guidance envelope, however, a
bit more of an along-track spread. The official track forecast lies
between the various consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance.
The new cyclone has a rather small circulation. In the next couple
of days, global models suggest vertical wind shear and the proximity
to land should limit the system's ability to strengthen. By the
weekend, environment conditions should become more conducive for
steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to reach
tropical storm strength in a day or so and become a hurricane by
day 3. Late in the forecast period, cooler sea surface temperatures
and dry mid-level humidities should induce a weakening trend. The
initial NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the
intensity guidance envelope.
Predicted tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain
offshore of the coast of Mexico. However, heavy rains and
potentially gusty winds are possible along portions of the
southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 15.5N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 16.1N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 16.7N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.3N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.2N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 18.6N 109.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 22.1N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
NNNN