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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Lorena has not produced organized convection near the center for the 
last 18 h, and since the center is located over sea surface 
temperatures between 24-25C there is little chance that convection 
will re-develop. While the latest scatterometer overpasses missed 
the center, satellite intensity estimates are quickly decreasing and 
are now in the 25-35 kt range.  Based on this, Lorena has 
degenerated to a remnant low with winds near 30 kt.  The system 
should continue to weaken over the cold water, with dissipation 
forecast by 72 h.

Lorena has moved little since the last advisory. Track model 
guidance indicates that the remnant low should drift northward for 
the next 12 h or so, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest 
and then west-northwest. The new forecast track is similar to, but a 
little south of, the previous track.

While Lorena is now a remnant low, the heavy rainfall threat 
continues. Abundant moisture continues to stream northeastward away 
from Lorena, and a surface trough seen in scatterometer data over 
the Gulf of California between Loreto and Guymas is triggering a 
large area of convection at this time. Significant rainfall and 
flash flooding has already occurred over portions of Baja California 
Sur, and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue 
across portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora through today, and 
southern Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday.

This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane 
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash 
flood risks can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products 
from the Meteorological Service of Mexico.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact 
Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through tonight, which will 
result in areas of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides 
across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns 
across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to 
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona 
into Saturday.

3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the western coast of Baja California Sur through today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 24.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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