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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
900 PM CST Mon Sep 01 2025
 
Deep convection associated with a low pressure system to the south
of southwestern Mexico has persisted and continues to become better 
organized over the past several hours.  There is a fairly 
well-defined upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern over the area, 
with cloud tops to -70 deg C or colder near the estimated center.  
Based on the increased organization of the cloud pattern, the system 
is being designated as a tropical depression at this time.  Dvorak 
satellite classifications are 1.5/1.5 and 2.0/2.0 from TAFB and SAB, 
respectively, which supports a current intensity estimate of about 
30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/12 kt.  A mid-level 
ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone should cause the 
system to move on a west-northwestward to northwestward track for 
the next couple of days.  Steering currents are expected to 
gradually weaken through the forecast period, resulting in a 
decrease in the forward speed of the cyclone.  In 3 to 5 days, the 
slow-moving system is expected to turn northward and then 
northeastward into a weakness in the ridge.  The official track 
forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.

The tropical cyclone is currently situated in a weak shear 
environment over SSTs of around 30 deg C.  Strengthening is likely, 
and the system will probably be nearing hurricane intensity in a 
couple of days.  Later in the forecast period, cooler ocean waters 
and a more stable air mass should cause gradual weakening.  The 
official forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity model consensus.

Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should 
monitor the progress of this system.   A Tropical Storm Watch could 
be required for portions of Baja California on Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 17.2N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 18.3N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 19.7N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 21.0N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 23.0N 113.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 26.3N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 28.2N 111.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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