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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 09 2025
 
Satellite images show that the burst of deep convection which 
developed north of the low-level center of Kiko this afternoon has 
collapsed, likely due to the strong southwesterly vertical wind 
shear and the dry mid-level environment the cyclone is navigating. 
The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from 
PHFO, SAB, and JTWC ranged from 1.5/25 kt to 2.0/30 kt, while the 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 31 to 36 kt. Based on 
a blend of these data, and accounting for little change in the 
satellite presentation during the past 12 hours or so, the initial 
intensity has been held at 35 kt for this advisory, keeping Kiko a 
tropical storm for now.

Kiko’s movement has been a bit erratic since the previous advisory, 
with outflow from the collapse of a deep convective burst driving 
the low-level center south of due west since the previous advisory 
cycle. This motion appears to be modifying after the initial 
southward jog, with a west-northwestward motion expected to resume 
shortly. The initial motion for this advisory is set at a somewhat 
uncertain 280 degrees at 11 kt. This general west to west-northwest 
motion is expected to continue during the next several days as 
Kiko’s increasingly shallow circulation is steered by the low-level 
flow along the southwest periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to 
the north and northeast. The latest track forecast has shifted south 
of the previous advisory to account for the southward jog, and is 
roughly a blend of the latest multi-model consensus HCCA/TVCE/FSSE 
aids and the AI-driven GDMI/EGMI aids.

Kiko will remain over sufficiently warm water during the next 24 
hours, while struggling with very dry mid-level air and moderate to 
strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. This should lead to 
continued slow weakening of the cyclone, and Kiko will likely become 
a tropical depression on Wednesday. Beyond 24 hours, the vertical 
wind shear decreases and waters will warm to 27–28C, but this will 
likely not be sufficient for intensification due to the very dry 
mid-level environment and increasing upper-level convergence. As a 
result, Kiko is expected to continue to weaken, with the forecast 
calling for the cyclone to become a post-tropical remnant low by 48 
hours and dissipate entirely by 96 hours. The intensity forecast is 
very close to the previous forecast and is on the lower end of the 
various intensity aids.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the western Hawaiian Islands 
tonight through early Wednesday. The threat of direct impacts  
continues to lower, although interests in the western Hawaiian 
Islands should continue to monitor Kiko's progress.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko will peak over the exposed waters of the 
western Hawaiian Islands tonight and Wednesday, producing 
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates 
and forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, 
Hawaii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 22.4N 157.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 22.9N 158.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 23.6N 161.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 24.2N 163.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 24.9N 165.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1800Z 25.6N 167.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z 26.2N 170.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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