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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 08 2025
 
Kiko has rapidly weakened this evening, with the system now 
consisting primarily of a swirl of low-level clouds and little to no 
remaining deep convection. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft investigating the cyclone measured a central pressure of 
1004 mb and a maximum flight-level wind of 62 kt at 850 mb. Shortly 
thereafter, a timely ASCAT-C pass at 0704 UTC depicted surface winds 
near 40 kt in the northern semicircle. These data, together with the 
latest objective and subjective intensity estimates and the 
continued degradation of the satellite presentation, support an 
initial intensity of 50 kt, making Kiko a tropical storm.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. With the 
cyclone now shallow and asymmetric, Kiko is being steered primarily 
by the low-level subtropical ridge. The forecast track has been 
nudged slightly southward to better align with the multi-model 
consensus aids and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). This 
keeps Kiko on a west-northwestward trajectory, passing north of the 
Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak and asymmetric 
tropical storm. Intermittent bursts of convection, as reflected by 
model-simulated satellite guidance, could result in brief poleward 
fluctuations of the track.

Persistent southwesterly shear of 30–40 kt has removed nearly all 
organized convection from Kiko, and this hostile environment is 
expected to continue through at least the next 24 hours. While the 
shear may briefly decrease between 48 and 60 hours and sea surface 
temperatures will be slightly warmer, only sporadic bursts of 
convection are anticipated. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Kiko 
is likely to become a tropical depression later in the week. The NHC 
intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday 
and Wednesday. Additional weakening expected, and the threat of 
direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though 
interests should still monitor Kiko’s progress and the latest 
forecasts.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west 
across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak early 
Tuesday through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening 
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts 
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 21.9N 152.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 22.7N 154.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 23.5N 156.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 24.2N 159.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 25.0N 161.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 25.8N 163.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 26.4N 165.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 27.6N 168.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 29.4N 169.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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