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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 07 2025
 
 
Kiko's eye has become a bit cloud filled during the past few hours,
and cloud-top temperatures around the eye have been gradually
warming.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently investigating the hurricane and measured a 700-mb
flight-level wind of 105 kt in the northeastern quadrant, as well
as a minimum pressure up to 974 mb.  Based on the aircraft data,
the current intensity is set at 95 kt, which is also in line with
the latest objective satellite estimates.
 
The west-northwestward motion of 300/11 kt continues, and a
slightly faster speed on that trajectory is expected at least
through day 4 while Kiko remains on the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge.  Based on this motion, Kiko is expected to pass to
the north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the
most reliable track models remain in good agreement on this
scenario.  The track guidance is again a little faster with Kiko as
it passes to the north of the islands, and the NHC track forecast
is a bit faster than the previous prediction starting in about 24
hours, but there is no appreciable change in the cross-track
direction.  Based on the new forecast, and accounting for typical
forecast errors, there is currently less than a 10 percent chance
of tropical-storm-force winds occurring at any location on the 
Hawaiian Islands, and tropical storm watches are not required.
 
Cool water temperatures appear to be contributing to Kiko's current
weakening.  Moderate southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to
develop over Kiko in about 12-18 hours, and that, along with a very
dry surrounding environment, should lead to even quicker weakening.
The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus
aids, and shows Kiko falling below hurricane intensity on Monday.
The shear appears to peak in about 48 hours (as much as 30-35 kt),
so if Kiko can survive that period, it's possible that the storm
may weaken more slowly in the latter part of the foreast,
especially with sea surface temperatures along its path expected to
warm to about 27 degrees Celsius by day 3.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday
and Wednesday.  While the risk of direct impacts on the islands
appears to be decreasing, interests there should continue to monitor
Kiko's progress and the latest forecast.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui today. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 18.1N 145.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 19.0N 147.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 20.2N 149.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 21.4N 151.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 22.6N 154.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 23.7N 156.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 24.6N 159.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 26.6N 163.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 28.3N 166.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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