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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko 
this evening measured a minimum central pressure of 960 mb and 
maximum flight-level winds of 113 kt. Although the hurricane 
maintains a symmetric annular structure with a well-defined eye, the 
surrounding ring of cold cloud tops has warmed over the past few 
hours. HFO Dvorak subjective intensity estimates reflected this 
weakening trend with a T5.5/102 kt, while SAB had a T5.0/90 kt. 
Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 107 to 115 
kt. Based on a blend of these data and satellite trends, and 
considering the fluctuating intensity that Kiko has exhibited during 
the past couple of days, the initial intensity is set at 110 kt, 
making Kiko a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane 
Wind Scale.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300 degrees at 11 kt. 
The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a mid-level 
ridge, while a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii is eroding 
the ridge’s western extent. This pattern should maintain a 
west-northwestward to northwestward track through the rest of the 
weekend. By early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), as Kiko weakens 
and becomes more vertically shallow, the cyclone will be steered 
more by the low-level flow, which should induce a gradual turn 
toward the west while keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian 
Islands. The latest forecast track is nearly identical to the 
previous NHC forecast and remains close to the consensus aids.

Kiko has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane this evening, and 
additional gradual weakening is expected overnight and into Sunday 
as the cyclone remains over cooler waters. It will likely fall below 
major hurricane strength by Sunday night. However, its annular 
structure introduces some uncertainty regarding the exact rate of 
decay over the next 12–24 hours. By Monday, increasing mid-level dry 
air and strengthening west-southwesterly shear should lead to a more 
pronounced weakening trend. By days 3 to 5, Kiko is forecast to 
become a much weaker, shallow, and sheared system as it passes north 
of the Hawaiian Islands. The official forecast remains slightly 
above most of the short-term guidance, before trending closer to the 
consensus aids later in the period.

Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate Kiko again around 07/1800 UTC Sunday, which will provide 
updated information on its intensity and structure.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track
currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still
too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential
impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 17.1N 143.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 17.8N 144.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 18.9N 146.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 20.2N 149.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 21.5N 151.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 22.7N 153.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 23.6N 155.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 25.1N 160.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 26.0N 164.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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