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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

Kiko continues to maintain a well-defined eye, but the eyewall 
convective tops continue to slowly warm. Satellite intensity 
estimates have decreased since the last advisory and are currently 
in the 90-115 kt range.  Based on a blend of the estimates, the 
initial intensity is decreased to 105 kt.

Kiko has moved a little to the right during the past few hours, and 
the overall motion is now 295/10 kt.  The hurricane is on the south 
side of a low- to mid-level ridge, and a mid- to upper-level low 
seen in satellite imagery near and north of Hawaii is eroding the 
ridge's western end. This pattern should cause Kiko to move 
west-northwestward to perhaps northwestward for the next 72 h or so. 
After that time, a more westward track is expected as Kiko shears 
apart vertically and the weakening cyclone is steered more by the 
low-level easterly flow.  The new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track and lies along the south side of the various 
consensus models.  While the current forecast track keeps the center 
of Kiko north of the Hawaiian Islands, there is still some spread in 
the guidance, and thus uncertainty, in forecasts at 3 days and 
beyond.
 
During the next 2 days or so, Kiko should be passing over sea 
surface temperatures near 26C while it moves through a dry 
mid-level air mass. This combination should cause some weakening.  
After that, while the sea surface temperatures get warmer along the 
forecast track, strong vertical shear produced by the upper-level 
low should cause continued weakening, with Kiko expected to shear 
apart vertically by 72-96 hr.  The new intensity forecast shows 
notably lower intensities than the previous forecast based on the 
current intensity and the intensity consensus forecast. 
 
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Kiko later today to provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and
structure.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track 
currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still 
too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential
impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the 
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this 
storm.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 16.1N 141.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 16.8N 142.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 17.7N 144.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 18.8N 146.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 20.1N 149.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 21.4N 151.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 22.5N 153.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 24.4N 158.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 25.5N 162.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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