ZCZC HFOTCDCP4 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

Kiko is maintaining a well-defined eye on satellite imagery, but 
the convection is becoming eroded over the northern semicircle 
of the system.  Also, the cloud tops have warmed somewhat since 
last night.  The advisory intensity is set at 115 kt, in general 
agreement with Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB 
and close to the objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.  Scatterometer 
data overnight showed that the system remains rather small, with 
tropical-storm force winds over a diameter of 100 n mi or less.

The hurricane continues on its west-northwestward trek with an 
initial motion estimate of 290/10 kt.  Kiko is moving on the 
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge.  A mid- to upper-level 
trough near Hawaii is eroding the ridge's western periphery, so a 
a nearly northwestward motion is likely around 72 hours.  Later in 
the forecast period, a more westward track is likely as the 
weakening cyclone becomes more responsive to the lower-level 
steering flow.  The official forecast track is just slightly north 
of the previous official prediction, with some of the consensus 
track prediction aids even farther north of the latest official 
track. This would keep the center of Kiko north of the main 
Hawaiian Islands.  However there is still some uncertainty in 
forecasts at 3 days and beyond. 

Kiko is traversing SSTs near 26 deg C and should continue to pass 
over marginally warm ocean waters during the next few days.  
However, the trough near Hawaii is likely to impart increasingly 
strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the cyclone for 
the next several days.  The official intensity forecast shows 
gradual weakening, and is generally above the consensus model 
guidance.  Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows 
the deep convection becoming disorganized while the system passes 
near the Hawaiian Islands, so the official intensity forecast at 
3-5 days could be generous.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
Kiko later today to provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and 
structure.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
are possible over portions of the Islands, but it is still too soon 
to determine the exact location or magnitude of these potential 
impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress 
of this storm.
 
2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian 
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing 
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories 
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 15.5N 140.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 143.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 18.0N 145.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 19.1N 147.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 20.4N 150.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 21.8N 152.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 24.1N 157.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 25.5N 162.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
NNNN