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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025
 
Kiko has continued to intensify this afternoon and remains a 
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The 
eye is now surrounded by a large ring of very cold cloud tops, and 
the cyclone has taken on a structure more typical of annular 
hurricanes. A GMI microwave pass from 2224 UTC confirmed a symmetric 
inner-core with a complete ring of deep convection around the eye. 
The latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are as high as 122 kt. 
Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB are both 
T6.0/115 kt. Blending the higher objective estimates with the 
slightly lower subjective classifications yields an initial 
intensity of 120 kt.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The 
cyclone remains steered along the southwestern flank of a 
subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii is 
helping to erode the western periphery of the ridge. This general 
motion with some increase in forward speed should persist through 
the weekend, with Kiko expected to cross into the central Pacific 
basin late tonight or early Saturday. The official forecast track is 
near the HCCA consensus and essentially unchanged from the previous 
advisory. However, a track slightly to the left of the official 
forecast would bring Kiko closer to the Big Island. Historically, 
cyclones approaching the Big Island from the east can slow and 
deflect northward as the island terrain disrupts the low-level flow 
and alters the steering currents. 

Kiko should remain a powerful hurricane for the next 12–24 hours 
while traversing 26–27 C waters with light north-northeasterly 
shear. Its annular structure may allow it to resist weakening longer 
than typical guidance, despite the surrounding dry environment in 
the mid- to upper levels. Beyond 48 hours, a combination of cooler 
waters, dry mid-level air, and strengthening west-southwesterly 
shear exceeding 30 kt will likely induce rapid weakening. The 
official intensity forecast holds Kiko above most of the available 
guidance into the weekend, then trends more toward the consensus 
aids later in the weekend and early next week.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the 
early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind 
remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact 
location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should 
continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big 
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are 
forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands 
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening 
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible 
warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 14.9N 138.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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