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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025

Recent IR satellite imagery indicates Kiko's presentation is 
improving as the previous eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) process 
is likely in its final stages of concluding, with the eye beginning 
to clear out. Latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 
T6.0/115 kt, with objective intensity estimates only starting to 
increase again. Thus, the initial intensity for now will remain 115 
knots. 

Now that Kiko is completing its EWRC, some reintensification is 
possible. The overall environment remains favorable, with 
sea-surface temperatures (SST) remaining between 27-28 C with modest 
northeasterly shear. Previous forecasts from the interpolated 
intensity aids were below the official NHC forecast.  However, this 
area of the Pacific has historically had a low bias when it comes to 
the intensity forecasts when tropical cyclones develop a more 
annular structure, which the current environment is favorable for.  
As a result, the previous forecast was generally maintained over the 
first 72 hours, above the majority of the guidance. Beyond 72 hours, 
southwesterly shear increases quickly, and the hurricane will move 
over sub-26 C SSTs. This should hasten weakening towards the end of 
the forecast, which falls back in line with the intensity consensus 
aids.

Kiko will ride the southern periphery of a broad upper ridge 
situated over the northern Pacific leading to a continued west to 
west-northwest heading through the end of the week and weekend with 
a forward propagation likely to settle between 8-12 kts over this 
time frame. By early next week, the forward speed will increase to 
10-15 kts, with the hurricane moving a bit more poleward as it 
approaches the Hawaiian Islands, as an upper trough to the northwest 
of the islands erodes the western flank of the ridge.  This forecast 
remains close to the consensus guidance and just a little faster 
than the previous NHC forecast.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts
from wind and rainfall is increasing.  However, it is too soon to
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 13.9N 134.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 14.1N 135.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 15.0N 139.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 15.7N 141.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 16.3N 143.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 18.7N 149.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 20.3N 154.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kleebauer/Papin
 
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