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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025
 
Moderate northeasterly shear is displacing most of Ivo's convection 
south of the center, and the convective mass itself has begun to 
shrink.  The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a T3.0 
classification from TAFB, and this is also supported by a recent 
ASCAT pass which showed a maximum of 38 kt (but is likely limited 
by the instrument's resolution).  Continued moderate shear, 
gradually cooling sea surface temperatures, and a stable air mass 
ahead of Ivo are forecast to continue the weakening trend.  GFS- 
and ECMWF-based simulated satellite imagery show all deep convection 
dissipating by 36 hours, which is when Ivo is shown degenerating 
into a remnant low in the official forecast.  Dissipation is now 
expected by day 3, which is when the remnant low loses its 
integrity in the global model fields.

Ivo has been moving westward, or 280/6 kt.  Low- to mid-level 
ridging is expected to keep Ivo on a westward or west-northwestward 
track through dissipation.  There is low spread among the track 
models, and only minor adjustments were made to the new NHC 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 21.0N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Berg
 
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