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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
300 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025

One-minute GOES-E visible imagery, microwave imagery and 
scatterometer data from this morning indicate that the disturbance 
south of Mexico has become much better organized. The system has 
developed banding features, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak analysis 
shows a Final-T of 2.0. The ASCAT data showed peak winds between 
30-35 kt, so advisories have been initiated on Tropical Storm Ivo, 
with an initial intensity of 35 kt.

Ivo has a relatively small circulation, but it's embedded within a 
fairly large area of deep convection. SHIPS diagnostics indicate 
that wind shear could be a limiting factor for Ivo's intensity 
during the next couple of days, but the tropical storm is in an 
otherwise conducive environment for strengthening. The NHC forecast 
follows the multi-model consensus and shows Ivo reaching hurricane 
strength within the next couple of days, but there is about 30 kt of 
spread in the intensity guidance, both above and below the official 
forecast.

Ivo is moving fairly quickly toward the west-northwest near 19 kt. A 
deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer 
Ivo parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days. 
The ridge is forecast to weaken by the weekend, causing Ivo to move 
at a slower forward speed, but by then Ivo will reach cooler SSTs 
and a more stable environment. That should cause the cyclone to 
quickly weaken and turn westward, steered primarily by low-level 
flow. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance 
envelope, very close to HCCA throughout the 5-day period.

The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo are expected to 
remain offshore of the coast of Mexico, however heavy rain and 
rough surf are likely along portions of the southwest coast of 
Mexico during the next day or two.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 14.2N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 15.4N 101.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 17.2N 105.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 18.9N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 20.7N 113.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 21.5N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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