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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Aug 12 2025
 
The overall satellite presentation of Henriette has not changed 
much overnight with deep convection over the small inner core of 
the cyclone.  Earlier microwave imagery showed that the eye had 
become less distinct, and the latest subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates have begun to decrease.  A blend of 
Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from the subjective estimates support 
an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory. 

Environmental conditions consisting of SSTs of 26-27 degrees C and 
moderate vertical wind shear suggests that only gradual weakening 
will occur today.  However, the shear is forecast to increase 
significantly overnight and on Wednesday which should result in a 
faster rate of demise.  Simulated satellite imagery from the  
global models show the system decoupling in 24 to 36 hours, and the 
updated forecast calls for Henriette to become post-tropical by 
36 hours, but this could occur a little sooner. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is near the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, which 
is a little above the HFIP corrected consensus that indicates an 
even faster rate of weakening. 

Henriette is moving northwestward or 315/15 kt, and this general 
motion should continue for another 24 to 36 hours as the system is 
steered between a mid-level ridge to its northeast and an 
upper-level low to the west. As the cyclone weakens and is steered 
more by the low-level low it is expected to decelerate and turn 
north-northwestward and northward. The updated official track 
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and lies 
close to the various consensus aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 32.8N 161.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 34.3N 163.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 36.2N 166.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 38.3N 168.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  14/1200Z 40.7N 169.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/0000Z 42.7N 169.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/E. Adams
 
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