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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Aug 10 2025

Henriette has intensified significantly overnight.  Satellite
images show the formation of inner-core features, with recent
microwave data from SSMIS showing what appears to be the early
stages of a broken eyewall.  Intensity estimates have risen,
ranging from 35 to 55 kt.  The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt,
on the higher side of the range given recent satellite trends.
 
Despite the marginal water temperatures, further strengthening is 
expected.  Wind shear is forecast to drop to less than 10 kt by 
tonight, along with a small increase in SSTs and cooling 
upper-level temperatures.  Given the inner-core structure present 
on microwave and the forecast environment, Henriette is likely to 
become a hurricane by tomorrow.  This forecast is higher than the 
last advisory and the model consensus, though not as high as the 
HAFS models.  Increasing shear and cooling waters in a few days 
should cause weakening, and Henriette should dissipate in roughly 
4-5 days.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 14 kt.  The track 
forecast of Henriette seems to be straightforward.  A large ridge 
over the north-central Pacific should cause a continued fast 
northwestward track for several days until its slows down a bit 
near dissipation.  Model guidance is generally west of the last 
cycle, and the new forecast follows that trend, between the old NHC 
forecast and the model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 24.7N 151.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 26.1N 153.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 28.2N 155.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 30.3N 158.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 32.4N 160.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 34.3N 163.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 36.0N 165.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 39.0N 169.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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