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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082025
500 PM HST Wed Aug 06 2025
 
Henriette’s satellite presentation has deteriorated since the 
previous advisory, with the cyclone now nearly devoid of all deep 
convection and the low-level center fully exposed.  The most recent 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 3.0/45 kt from TAFB, 
while SAB deemed the cyclone too weak to classify.  Meanwhile, 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 37 to 51 kt over 
the past several hours.  An earlier 06/1755Z Metop-C ASCAT pass 
depicted numerous 40 kt wind barbs, with a single 40–45 kt wind barb 
noted north of the low-level center.  Based on these data, the 
initial intensity for this advisory is maintained, at perhaps a 
generous, 45 kt.

The cyclone is moving westward, or 275 degrees, at 14 kt. This 
general motion is expected to persist tonight and Thursday, as 
Henriette continues to be steered by a strengthening subtropical 
ridge to its north.  A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and 
eventually northwest is expected to begin Friday and continue 
through the weekend, as an amplifying longwave trough northwest of 
Hawaii begins to erode the western extent of the subtropical ridge.  
The official track forecast remains closely aligned with the latest 
multi-model consensus aids and is largely unchanged from the 
previous advisory.  There is high confidence that the center of 
Henriette will remain far to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.

Henriette will be moving over gradually cooling sea surface 
temperatures, lowering to near 24C, while mid-level relative 
humidity also falls below 50 percent.  Despite these marginal 
thermodynamic conditions, Henriette’s well-established circulation 
is likely to remain resilient due to the low-shear environment the 
cyclone will be transiting through.  As a result, only slight 
weakening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, followed by 
little change in strength through 72 hours.  If Henriette can 
survive the passage over the cooler waters, as has been advertised 
by the GFS and ECMWF models for several days now, re-intensification 
appears likely over the weekend and into early next week as sea 
surface temperatures warm to levels conducive for strengthening.  
The official intensity forecast reflects this, bringing Henriette to 
hurricane strength by 120 hours.  The intensity forecast is mostly 
unchanged and remains closely aligned with the dynamical intensity 
guidance aid HCCA and the regional hurricane models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 18.2N 132.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 18.3N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 18.7N 137.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 19.2N 141.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 20.0N 143.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 21.1N 146.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 22.5N 149.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 25.5N 153.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 29.0N 157.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
 
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