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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082025
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula have become better
organized during the past 12 hours. Additionally, an overnight ASCAT
pass showed a well-defined circulation with peak winds near 30 kt.
Given the improved convective organization and well-defined
circulation, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression
Eight-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a blend of
the ASCAT pass and Dvorak current intensity estimates from both
TAFB and SAB.
 
The initial motion is estimated at 300/13 kt, along the southern
side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to remain
in place through the 5-day period, steering the system generally
west-northwestward for the entire forecast. A slightly more westward
motion is possible by day 4 as the cyclone becomes more shallow and
is steered within the low- to mid-level flow. The updated track
forecast is close to the consensus aids.
 
The system is forecast to steadily strengthen during the next couple 
of days as it moves over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear 
environment. It is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday 
and could approach hurricane strength between 36 and 60 hours. After 
that time, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as the cyclone 
moves over sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C and begins to 
entrain drier mid-level air within a more stable environment. 
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models supports this 
scenario, showing a reduction in deep convection as the system 
continues west-northwestward into the central Pacific basin. The 
forecast is slightly above the intensity guidance through 60 hours, 
then is in good agreement with the consensus aids thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 13.7N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 14.4N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 15.4N 122.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 16.4N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 17.4N 127.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 18.2N 129.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 19.8N 138.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 21.2N 145.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
 
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