ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Gil Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072025
500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
 
Gil appears to have rid itself of the intrusion of dry air it had 
been dealing with earlier in the day.  The center is now embedded 
within a Central Dense Overcast, and as a result, subjective 
satellite estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB.  
Several objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are at that level or 
higher, so Gil is therefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

Gil is moving faster toward the west-northwest, now 295/17 kt.  
Strong mid-level ridging is expected to persist to the north of the 
hurricane, which should cause Gil to continue moving quickly toward 
the west-northwest through much of the weekend.  A slower forward 
motion with a turn toward the west is forecast by Monday as the 
weakening cyclone is steered by lower-level flow.  The new NHC 
track forecast is just a touch south of the previous prediction, 
leaning toward the HCCA and AI models.

Gil only has a small window for continued strengthening since 
cooler sea surface temperatures lie ahead.  The NHC intensity 
forecast allows for a bit more strengthening through 12 hours, but 
then fast weakening is expected thereafter due to the cold waters.  
In fact, model-simulated satellite images indicate Gil will likely 
lose its deep convection in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast 
shows it becoming post-tropical at that time.  Because of Gil's 
fast motion, the decrease in its winds are likely to lag the loss 
of convection, and the 45-kt forecast intensity at 48 hours is 
higher than is typical for when an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone 
becomes post-tropical.  Gil is expected to open up into a trough by 
day 5, which is supported by most of the global model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 16.5N 125.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
NNNN