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Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072025
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance NHC has been 
tracking for the past several days has become much better organized 
during the past 12 hours.  The latest subjective Dvorak estimates 
are 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and 1.5/25 kt from SAB.  A 0457 UTC ASCAT-B 
pass showed a well-defined circulation with peak winds near 35 kt. 
Since that time, the convective organization has continued to 
improve significantly, with a central convective area containing 
cloud tops that are becoming colder and more circular on infrared 
imagery, along with developing banding features.  The system is 
upgraded to Tropical Storm Gil based on the above data, and the 
initial intensity estimate is 40 kt to reflect the improved 
structure since the time of the ASCAT pass.

Gil is moving westward, or 275/13 kt.  The track forecast is fairly 
straightforward.  A mid-level ridge to the north of Gil will steer 
the cyclone west-northwestward for the next 3 to 4 days.  As Gil 
weakens and becomes shallow, it should bend more to the west by day 
4.  The track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope 
and is close to the TVCE consensus.

Gil is currently located in a moist environment with warm 
sea-surface temperatures and low to moderate vertical wind shear, 
and the cyclone is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane over the 
next 36 h.  The shear is forecast to decrease further over the next 
24 h while upper-level divergence increases.  Given the current 
impressive outflow and relatively fast recent development trends, it 
is possible Gil could strengthen a bit more than forecast over the 
next day or two.  However, Gil is forecast to reach colder water and 
more stable conditions by hour 48 as it gains latitude, which should 
lead to weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of 
the guidance envelope.  Gil is forecast to lose its convection and 
become a remnant low by day 5.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 12.7N 115.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 13.4N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 14.5N 119.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 15.7N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 17.1N 125.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 18.6N 129.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 20.1N 132.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 21.7N 138.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 22.3N 144.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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