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Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025

Flossie is feeling the effects of decreasing sea surface 
temperatures, with the associated convection waning and becoming 
asymmetric.  The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates 
indicate weakening, and recent objective satellite estimates are in 
the 80-90 kt range.  Based on this, the initial intensity is 
decreased to a possibly generous 85 kt.  The initial wind radii have 
been revised based on a 1638Z ASCAT overpass.
 
The initial motion is 305/8 kt.  Flossie is moving toward a break 
in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough 
over California and the adjacent Pacific. A general northwestward 
motion should continue for the next couple of days. After that, 
Flossie should lose vertical depth as it weakens, with the remnant 
low being steered more toward the west-northwest by the mean 
low-level flow. The new forecast track is almost identical to the 
previous track and lies near the various consensus models.

Steady to rapid weakening is forecast to continue as Flossie moves 
over cooler water and into a drier air mass. The cyclone is 
predicted to become post-tropical in about 36 h as it stops 
producing convection, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low 
thereafter.  The system is forecast to dissipate completely by    
96 h, and this could happen earlier than currently forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 19.5N 109.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Beven
 
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