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Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
 
Satellite imagery shows that the inner core of Flossie has started 
to degrade this morning, and the eye has become more ragged and 
cloud filled. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0916 UTC shows that 
the northern eyewall has started to deteriorate, and is open on the 
northern side. This suggest a weakening trend has begun, and Flossie 
has likely reached peak intensity. While the system has peaked, deep 
cold convection continues to wrap around the southern and eastern 
side of the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90-100 
kt. Given the latest satellite trends and using a blend of the 
estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory.
 
Flossie continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots.
This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder
of the forecast period, towards a weakness in the mid-level ridge.
The latest NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the right of
the previous, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus.
 
A steady to rapid weakening trend is expected to begin today. Along 
the forecast track, Flossie will continue to move into cooler sea 
surface temperatures and drier mid-level air.  Thus, the NHC 
intensity forecast shows a little quicker weakening trend compared 
to the previous, and lies near the simple intensity consensus. 
Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 36 hours, with 
dissipation following by 96 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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