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Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
Flossie is still intensifying, with conventional satellite imagery 
showing a curved band pattern with cloud tops colder than -80C and a 
formative eye. In addition, recent microwave overpasses show an eye 
and eyewall present under the convective overcast.  The latest 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are generally 
in the 75-85 kt range, and based on current trends the initial 
intensity is set at 85 kt.
 
The initial motion is 305/9 kt.  A general northwestward to 
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is 
expected during the next 3-4 days as Flossie moves toward a weakness 
in the subtropical ridge.  After that time, the cyclone or its 
remnants is forecast to turn westward as they become steered more by 
the low-level flow.  The new forecast track, which generally splits 
the difference between the HCCA corrected consensus and the other 
consensus models, is a little north of the previous forecast through 
72 h and a little south of the previous track after that time.
 
The wind shear and moisture are forecast to be favorable for
strengthening as long as Flossie remains over warm water.  While
the hurricane is starting to move over decreasing sea surface
temperatures, the intensity guidance suggests it will take about
24 h to reach water cold enough to stop intensification. Based on
this, the new intensity forecast calls for another 24 h of 
strengthening. After that, Flossie is expected to rapidly weaken, 
with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h and a remnant low by 
96 h.  The forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance
for the first 36 h and near the intensity consensus for the rest of
the forecast period.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should continue to bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding is possible.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next
several hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 17.4N 105.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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