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Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
 
Earlier SSMIS microwave data and satellite imagery depicted Flossie 
becoming better organized with curved banding features. However, 
recent imagery shows that banding has become a little more broken 
since the previous advisory, as Flossie is still trying to organize 
and consolidate. A 1600 UTC METOP-C scatterometer pass shows that 
the low-level center has become better defined, however was slightly 
south of the previously estimated position, and satellite-derived 
winds were around 31 kt. Using the scatterometer data and the latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates T2.5, from both TAFB and SAB, 
the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.
 
Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening 
with warm sea surface temperatures, plentiful moisture and low to 
moderate wind shear. As the system becomes better organized, steady 
strengthening is forecast. Rapid intensification indices remain 
elevated in latest SHIPS guidance, however RI is not explicitly 
forecast at this time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous, closest to the hurricane regional aids, but lies 
slightly below the HCCA corrected consensus.
 
The current motion is estimated to be westward-northwestward around 
295/7 kt. The storm is forecast moving west-northwestward  with a 
turn towards the northwest anticipated tomorrow around the western 
periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is near 
the previous, and lies between the simple and HCCA corrected 
consensus aids.
 
Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast.  A 
track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could 
bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy 
rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, 
Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep 
terrain.
 
2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and 
tropical storm warnings could be required later tonight for a 
portion of the coast of southern Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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