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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

The convection associated with the area of low pressure located 
south of southern Mexico has become much better organized over the 
past 12 hours.  Additionally, a 29/0328 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a 
well-defined, closed low-level circulation with maximum winds around 
25 kt.  The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5 and T-2.0, respectively.  The 
disturbance is upgraded to a tropical depression based on the 
development of organized convection and a well-defined center. 

The aforementioned ASCAT pass shows that Tropical Depression Six-E 
has a large RMW.  However, the cyclone is located within a favorable 
environment with warm SSTs, a moist mid-level troposphere and low to 
moderate vertical wind shear.  The depression is forecast to remain 
in these favorable conditions for another 3 to 4 days as it 
parallels the coast of Mexico.  Due to the large RMW, only slow 
strengthening is forecast for the first 24 h.  The system is 
expected to strengthen more quickly once it establishes a stronger 
convective core, and rapid intensification appears likely to occur 
by Tuesday.  The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the 
intensity guidance, especially at 60-72 h, and calls for the 
system to become a significant hurricane.  By 96 h, the cyclone 
should reach cooler water, and rapid weakening is likely in 4 to 5 
days, with the system likely becoming a remnant low around day 5. 

The current motion of the depression is estimated to be westward, or 
270/10 kt.   The cyclone is forecast to generally move in a 
direction between west-northwest and northwest for the next few 
days, toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the model 
guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario.  The NHC 
forecast is down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the 
TVCE consensus.  

Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast.  A 
track even a little to the right of the official forecast would 
bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 13.0N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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