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BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
 
...ERICK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 96.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning west
of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana.
 
The Hurricane Watch from east of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress 
of Erick.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 96.0 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to
approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland
or be near the coast on Thursday.
 
Erick is rapidly intensifying, and maximum sustained winds have 
increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts.  Rapid 
strengthening is expected to continue today, and Erick is forecast 
to reach major hurricane strength tonight or early Thursday as it 
approaches the coast of southern Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with
maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima,
Jalisco and Mexico City.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the 
warning area by this evening or overnight, and preparations to 
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  Tropical 
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area 
beginning late today and tonight.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through Thursday.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
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