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Hurricane Erick Special Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
 
This is a special advisory mainly to update the intensity of Erick. 
After an earlier eyewall replacement, satellite images indicate 
very deep convection is wrapping around the eye of the hurricane.  
Using a blend of objective ADT Dvorak estimates and SATCON values 
from UW/CIMSS yields a current intensity estimate of 125 kt, which 
is used for this advisory.  Some additional strengthening is 
possible during the next couple of hours, although the interaction 
with land should halt the intensification process.  Erick will 
weaken rapidly after making landfall.

A slight leftward adjustment was made to the forecast track based 
on the recent motion, which is now 305/8 kt.

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 06Z 
intermediate advisory.


KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erick is now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and 
devastating wind damage is likely where the core moves onshore.  
Weather conditions are already deteriorating in the warning area, 
and preparations to protect life and property should have been 
completed.

2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week.  Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
 
3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses
the coast, in areas of onshore winds.  The surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0600Z 15.5N  97.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 16.2N  98.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/0000Z 17.4N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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