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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of 
Guatemala have increased in organization over the past couple of 
days.  Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed elongated 
low-level center south of a burst of modest convective activity.  
The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a partial overpass of 
satellite scatterometer data.  Since the system is expected to 
develop and affect southern Mexico late Wednesday or Thursday, 
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

The initial motion is estimated to be 295/7 kt, but this is 
uncertain due to the lack of a defined core.  The low is moving 
along the western periphery of a ridge centered over the 
southwestern Atlantic, and this feature should control the motion of 
the system for the entirety of the forecast period.  Most global and 
regional models predict the low will turn toward the northwest later 
today or tonight, and that motion should persist for the next few 
days.  There is noticeable spread in the along-track speed of the 
system among the various models.  The GFS and some of the regional 
models show a slower motion while the ECMWF and HCCA anticipate a 
quicker forward speed.  The NHC forecast track lies closest to a 
blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, near the center of the guidance 
envelope.

The low should remain over an area of very warm waters and within a 
conducive environment for strengthening.  SHIPS-EC shows a 50 
percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening in 48 hr, which highlights 
the possibility of rapid intensification in the coming days.  The 
official forecast predicts the disturbance will become a tropical 
storm in about a day and a hurricane in a couple of days.  The NHC 
forecast lies near the higher end of the intensity guidance 
envelope.  This system is expected to bring significant winds upon 
landfall in southern Mexico in the next few days or so.  However, it 
is important to note that uncertainty remains high in the exact 
location of potential impacts, and interests in southern Mexico 
should closely monitor the latest forecasts.  

NHC now has the ability to issue tropical cyclone advisory products 
for Potential Tropical Cyclones up to 72 hours before the 
anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds on land when 
confidence is high that there is a significant risk of wind or storm 
surge impacts to land, regardless of the immediate need for 
land-based hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings,   
Previously, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be issued up 
to 48 hours beforehand.   Appropriate watches and warnings will 
still be issued 48 and 36 hours, respectively, before the onset of 
tropical-storm-force winds.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday 
and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it 
approaches southern Mexico.  Hurricane watches will likely be 
required for portions of southern Mexico tonight or early Tuesday.. 

2. The system will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico through this week.  
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in 
areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 10.6N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0600Z 11.1N  92.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  17/1800Z 11.8N  93.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 12.6N  94.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 13.5N  95.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 14.5N  96.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 15.8N  97.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 17.0N  98.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano
 
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