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Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
300 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
 
Satellite images and recent ASCAT data show that Dalila is a large 
tropical storm with its 34-kt wind radii spread out over a broad 
area, especially east of the center. The ASCAT passes showed 
tropical-storm-force winds occurring very near the coast of southern 
Mexico, which are likely aided by the local terrain. The initial 
intensity of the storm remains 35 kt based on the aforementioned 
ASCAT data and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Dalila is the second 
earliest fourth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin since 
records began in 1949, behind 1956.
 
Dalila likely will strengthen during the next day or so while it 
remains over warm waters and in a low to moderate wind shear 
environment. However, rapid intensification is not expected given 
the large size of the storm's wind field and the lack of an inner 
core. The opportunity for strengthening should end by late Saturday 
when Dalila is expected to cross the 26 C SST isotherm. Thereafter, 
a combination of cool waters and stable air should cause rapid 
weakening, and Dalila is now forecast to become a post-tropical 
cyclone by late Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.
 
The storm is still moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. A 
gradual turn to the northwest and then the west is expected over the 
next few days as Dalila moves on the south side of a building 
mid-level ridge. There is high confidence that the center of the 
system should stay off the coast of Mexico, but the northern extent 
of the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to brush the 
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The NHC track 
forecast is a touch north of the previous one and near the middle of 
the guidance envelope.
 

KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila could bring locally
heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and
Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.
 
2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across 
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 14.8N 102.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.4N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 18.5N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  16/1800Z 18.5N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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