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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
 
Satellite images show the disturbance is still broad with little 
improvement in organization this evening. There is minimal 
convective banding, and most of the thunderstorm activity is 
displaced well away from the cloud system center. The broad low 
remains a 30-kt disturbance for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 6 kt, though 
it is uncertain due to the lack of a well-defined center. The 
near-term motion could be erratic and slightly more northward 
overnight while the disturbance organizes and forms a center. But, 
the track guidance agrees that as the system organizes and deepens, 
it will resume a northwestward motion and move parallel to the coast 
of southwestern Mexico. Little change is shown in the updated NHC 
forecast, which remains near the simple and corrected consensus 
aids. However, larger changes could be required in future issuances 
depending on where and when a center eventually forms. 
 
The broad structure does not suggest strengthening will occur 
quickly in the near term. Once the system consolidates, the warm sea 
surface temperatures and moist environment appear generally 
favorable for intensification. Although the regional models show the 
system reaching hurricane status, moderate (15-20 kt) easterly shear 
shown by the global models for the next several days could make it 
difficult for that much strengthening to occur. For now, the NHC 
intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a strong tropical 
storm, in line with the simple intensity consensus. Cooler waters 
and drier mid-level air will lead to weakening during the latter 
half of the forecast period, and the system is forecast to dissipate 
by day 5. 

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring 
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, 
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when 
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical 
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 11.9N 100.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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