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Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025
 
Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken
their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection
for several hours and is expected to become a remnant low later this
morning. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease
accordingly. A 11/0442 UTC ASCAT pass showed winds in the 35-40 kt
range in the southern semicircle. Assuming additional weakening
after that time, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt.  After
transitioning to a remnant low later this morning, Cosme is expected
to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday.
 
The storm is now moving slowly toward the northeast. A gradual turn
to the north-northeast with some acceleration is expected later
today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Only a slight
eastward adjustment was made to the previous NHC track forecast,
with no significant changes to the intensity forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 16.2N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen
 
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