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Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
 
Barbara has been gradually decreasing in organization since earlier 
today.  Deep convection is rather fragmented with limited banding 
features.  Although thunderstorm activity could temporarily 
increase tonight after the diurnal minimum, overall the system 
appears to be on a weakening trend.  All of the objective intensity 
estimates are now below hurricane strength.  A blend of subjective 
Dvorak T- and C.I. numbers from TAFB gives about a 60-kt intensity 
estimate, which is used for this advisory.

The cyclone continues on a northwestward track with a motion of 
around 310/10 kt.  A weak mid-level ridge to the north of Barbara 
should maintain this northwestward motion for a while, albeit with 
some decrease in forward speed.  In 36-48 hours, the system should 
become a remnant low and turn westward following the shallow-layer 
flow.  The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the 
divergent track guidance and a little to the left of the previous 
NHC track.  This is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The storm is crossing a gradient of sea surface temperatures and 
headed for cooler waters and a drier, more stable environment.  
Therefore continued weakening is likely, and Barbara is expected to 
become a remnant low in 36 hours.  The official forecast 
is below the LGEM guidance but above the dynamical models, which 
suggest that the system will dissipate sooner than indicated here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 18.7N 107.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 20.7N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 21.2N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 21.3N 111.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Pasch
 
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