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Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
 
Barbara has become better organized as depicted in an earlier AMSR2 
microwave pass, which shows the low-level center tucked under a 
large central dense overcast. The microwave imagery also indicates 
that a partial eyewall has formed, although it was open on the 
northern side. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB was 
T4.0/65 kt, and the objective satellite intensity aids from UW-CIMSS 
range from 55-65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial 
intensity is increased to 65 kt for this advisory. This makes 
Barbara the first hurricane of the 2025 east Pacific hurricane 
season.
 
The storm is estimated to be moving more northwestward at 310/9 kt. 
Barbara continues to be steered by a mid-level ridge located over 
Mexico and it should continue to move northwestward over the next 
few days. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to be on opposite sides 
of the guidance envelope, and this is mainly due to differences in 
when Barbara weakens and becomes steered by the low-level wind flow. 
The latest NHC track forecast was shifted slightly to the right, 
closer to the simple and corrected consensus.
 
Barbara is likely near its peak intensity, as it only has about 6-12 
more hours of a favorable environment. Along the forecast track, the 
system will be crossing over increasingly cooler sea surface 
temperatures overnight. Around the same time, the mid-level relative 
humidity values will begin to drop. This will cause the system to 
steadily weaken and lose convective organization. The storm is now 
forecast to become post-tropical in 36 h, and dissipate into an open 
trough by 60 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 17.6N 106.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 19.6N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 20.8N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  11/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
 
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