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Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025
 
Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Barbara this 
afternoon, with cold cloud tops near -75 C. However, a dry slot in 
the eastern semi-circle looks to have slightly disrupted the 
convective organization. Subjective and objective intensity 
estimates range from 45-55 kt this cycle. Using a blend of satellite 
estimates and the latest imagery the intensity is held at 50 kt for 
this advisory.
 
Barbara is currently within a favorable environment with warm SSTs 
and low vertical wind shear. Strengthening is forecast over the next 
day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane overnight. 
After 24 h, the system will be moving over cooler sea surface 
temperatures below 26C and into a drier mid-level environment. These 
factors will cause the storm to weaken and eventually struggle to 
produce convection. Latest model IR simulated satellite imagery 
shows the system losing convection by 72 h.  This suggests that 
it will become a a post-tropical remnant low by that time and 
likely dissipate  by day 5 although that could occur sooner than 
currently forecast.
 
Barbara is moving west-northwestward at 295/10, steered by 
a mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this motion should continue over 
the next couple of days. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly 
rightward and lies just left of the the simple and corrected 
consensus aids.  Given the forecast track and wind radii, 
tropical-storm-force winds are not expected to affect the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the track forecast becomes 
more complicated given the potential interaction between Barbara and 
Cosme. The GFS and ECMWF are on opposite ends of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 16.0N 104.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.7N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 17.8N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 18.8N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 19.6N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 19.7N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 19.4N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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