ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
800 PM MST Fri May 30 2025
 
Alvin is losing strength due to the influences of strong shear and 
intrusions of dry air. The low-level center is now exposed to the 
south of a decaying area of thunderstorms, and the cloud pattern is 
becoming increasingly ragged. A blend of the latest satellite 
intensity estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 
kt. Continued strong southerly shear, dry air, and cool SSTs should 
cause additional weakening, and Alvin is expected to become a 
remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely on Sunday.
 
The storm is moving northward at 9 kt. A slightly slower
north-northwestward or northward motion is expected within the low-
to mid-level flow until the system dissipates. Alvin is forecast to
become a weak remnant low or an open trough by the time it nears
the southern Baja California peninsula.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 19.1N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 21.7N 109.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1200Z 23.0N 109.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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