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Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025
 
Alvin is unraveling quickly.  Overnight satellite surface wind data 
placed the center of the storm near the southern edge of the cold 
cloud tops.  The vertical wind shear analysis from CIMSS-UW 
estimates that Alvin has entered a region of strong shear.  The 
initial intensity is lowered slightly to 45 kt, based on the recent 
scatterometer observations.
 
The storm is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt.  Alvin should 
gradually turn toward the north over the next day or so as it moves 
towards a weakness in the ridge.  Only minor adjustments have been 
made to the official forecast, which lies near the various consensus 
aids.
 
The increasingly hostile environmental conditions are expected to 
weaken Alvin further over the next 24 h.  Strong vertical wind 
shear and cooling sea surface temperatures should cause the storm 
to become a post-tropical remnant low by this weekend.  No 
significant changes were made to the latest NHC intensity forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 16.6N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 17.9N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 19.5N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 21.1N 109.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0600Z 22.8N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/1800Z 24.6N 109.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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