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Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025
 
Satellite imagery depicts that Alvin has continued to become better 
organized throughout the day, showing convective banding and a 
central dense overcast with cold cloud tops near -75C located over 
the low-level center. An earlier scatterometer pass shows wind 
speeds around 45 kt. Given the improving convective structure since 
that pass, and increasing objective satellite intensity estimates, 
the initial intensity has increased to 50 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is 320/10 kt.  The storm is expected to continue
moving toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the
north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over
central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward
as it is influenced by a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track
forecast is very near the previous one.
 
The storm will remain within a favorable environment of warm sea 
surface temperatures and low wind shear over the next 12 hours or 
so. Given the latest convective trends and conducive conditions, the 
peak intensity forecast has increased this cycle to 60 kt. Tomorrow, 
Alvin will begin to move into a hostile environment with cooler 
SSTs, higher wind shear, and a drier mid-level airmass which will 
induce weakening. Latest model derived IR imagery from both the 
ECMWF and GFS depict the system becoming devoid of convection, and 
the latest NHC forecast depicts the system becoming a remnant low in 
48 h. Thus, there is high confidence that the system will weaken to 
a remnant low before it nears the Baja California Peninsula.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 15.1N 107.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 17.6N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 19.1N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  01/0600Z 22.0N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mora
 
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