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Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025
 
Tropical Storm Alvin has formed several hundred n mi south of 
southwestern Mexico. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity 
has increased and has become more organized around the center. 
Although the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have been steady at 
2.0/30 kt, the objective satellite intensity estimates are higher 
and generally between 35 and 45 kt. Based on a consensus of the 
data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt for this 
advisory.
 
The initial motion is 315/9 kt.  The storm is expected to continue 
toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the 
north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over 
central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward 
as it is influenced my a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track 
forecast is generally similar to the previous one.
 
Alvin should continue to strengthen today, within a favorable 
environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear for 
about the next 24 hours. The NHC peak intensity remains at 50 kt, 
which is near the high end of the model guidance. Weakening is 
expected to begin tomorrow as the storm moves into progressively 
higher shear and a drier environment with cooler SSTs. There is high 
confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it 
nears the Baja California Peninsula.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 13.8N 106.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Mora/Cangialosi
 
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