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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
200 AM MST Thu May 29 2025
 
The depression has been holding steady overnight.  While 
thunderstorm activity has increased since the previous advisory, 
recent scatterometer data has revealed that the surface winds remain 
generally unchanged.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based 
on the ASCAT data, which is also close to the other subjective and 
objective satellite estimates.

The initial motion is 330/8 kt.  The depression is expected to move 
north-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or so.  Then 
an amplifying upper-level trough offshore Baja California should 
turn the system northward on Friday and into the weekend. The NHC 
track forecast has shifted slightly to the west, largely because of 
the initial position, and it lies between the various consensus 
aids.
 
The window for the cyclone to strengthen is gradually closing.  The 
depression is still expected to become a tropical storm sometime 
later today, though the system only has about 36 hours of conducive 
environmental conditions.  The NHC peak intensity has been lowered 
to 50 kt and is at the top of the intensity forecast guidance 
envelope.  In a couple of days, the vertical wind shear is forecast 
to increase while the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a 
dry and stable air mass. Global models predict the system will lose 
its organized convection at this point and the NHC forecast now 
shows the system becoming post-tropical in 60 h.  Based on the 
latest track and size forecasts, tropical-storm-force winds are not 
expected to impact the coast of mainland Mexico or Baja California. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 13.3N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 15.6N 108.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 17.2N 108.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 20.3N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  01/0600Z 21.8N 108.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  02/0600Z 24.5N 108.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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