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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
900 PM CST Wed May 28 2025
 
The sprawling depression has shown a modest increase in deep 
convection closer to its low-level center in recent satellite 
images, but most of the fragmented convective bands remain farther 
away in the western semicircle. With little overall structural 
change, the latest satellite intensity estimates support holding the 
intensity at 30 kt. Overnight ASCAT wind data should provide more 
insight into the current intensity and wind field structure.

The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (335/8 kt), but 
a more northwestward motion is expected on Thursday before an 
amplifying upper-level disturbance offshore Baja California induces 
a northward turn on Friday and into the weekend. The NHC track 
forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right this cycle, roughly 
in between the latest simple and corrected consensus aids.

The depression should strengthen into a tropical storm during the 
next day or so within a weak vertical wind shear environment over 
warm waters. The amount of strengthening that occurs will depend on 
whether the broad cyclone can develop a tighter inner core before 
conditions become less favorable late this week. As the system gains 
latitude, strengthening shear and a drier, more stable airmass 
will disrupt its convective organization and result in weakening. 
The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 72 h and 
dissipate before the end of the 5-day forecast period. Based on the 
latest track and size forecasts, tropical-storm-force winds are not 
expected to impact the coast of mainland Mexico or Baja California.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 12.8N 104.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 13.8N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 15.0N 107.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 16.4N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 18.1N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  31/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 21.3N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 23.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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