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Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Earlier this afternoon, in the final leg exiting Barry in the 
northeast quadrant, the Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance sampling 
the storm measured a 850 mb flight level wind of 51 kt at 1647 UTC. 
This data was the basis for increasing the winds to 40 kt at 18 UTC 
intermediate advisory using the standard surface wind reduction 
factor. Since the aircraft left the storm, the satellite 
presentation has remained quite unimpressive, with the deepest 
convection near the center being sheared off to the southeast, 
though a larger curved band is attempting to organize well to the 
northeast of the small surface vortex. The center has also been 
trackable on radar based out of Tampico, Mexico. Based partially off 
the earlier aircraft data, the intensity of Barry remains 40 kt this 
advisory, but this value is also close to the objective satellite 
estimates of 41 kt and 40 kt from ADT and SATCON respectively. 

Barry continues to move off to the northwest, with the latest motion 
estimated at 315/8 kt, faster than earlier today. The steering flow 
is well-established by a low-to-mid level ridge parked in the 
central Gulf, which should maintain Barry's northwestward motion 
until it makes landfall this evening near Cabo Rojo, between 
the cities of Tuxpan and Tampico, Mexico. The latest NHC track is 
only slightly more right than the prior track, and is closest to 
the interpolated 12 UTC ECMWF track aid this cycle (EMXI). 

Time is just about up for Barry to intensify more before it makes 
landfall along the eastern Gulf coast of Mexico. Weakening should 
begin shortly after the tropical storm moves inland and especially 
when it encounters the high rugged terrain located in East-Central 
Mexico. This weakening is reflected in the latest NHC intensity 
forecast, and Barry will likely dissipate before the end of the day 
on Monday, in good agreement with the vast majority of the global 
and hurricane regional model guidance.
 
The primary impact with Barry remains heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding for the upslope areas of eastern Mexico. Please see the 
latest forecast rainfall graphic from the Weather Prediction Center 
International Desk for more information. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical Storm Barry will produce heavy rainfall across portions 
of northeastern Mexico through Monday. Life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 21.2N  96.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 22.0N  97.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/1800Z 22.8N  98.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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